ELEZIONI PRESIDENZIALI USA 2004 - OFFICIAL MEGATHREAD

[tatrat4d]

E al limite pure il Generale Tommy Franks.

[GioFX]

certo, manca Powell come altri esponenti importanti dell'amministrazione Clinton.

Cmq è per farsi un idea, e quelli sono tutti nomi degli esponenti dei partiti più esposti negli ultimi mesi di campagna elettorale...

Oltre ai massimi esponenti polici e militari dell'attuale governo USA, ci sono pure i principali teorici del New American Century e della dottrina "neocon", che continuano a criticare e smerdare Kerry perchè, dopo aver visto e fatto la guerra, dopo averla vissuta in prima persona, ha cambiato idea su molti aspetti legati ad essa e sulla necessità di non rinunciare mai alla diplomazia multilaterale e alla ricerca di tutte le possibili soluzioni prima di interaprendere una guerra quando questa non è assolutamente necessaria...

[GioFX]

Nessun commento sull'appoggio di Bush da parte dell'Iran? Ora, oltre a quello del governo dell'amico Kharzai e del governo fantoccio iracheno manca solo l'avallo di Osama in persona...

[GioFX]

President Bush: Flip-Flopper-In-Chief

From the beginning, George W. Bush has made his own credibility a central issue. On 10/11/00, then-Gov. Bush said: "I think credibility is important.It is going to be important for the president to be credible with Congress, important for the president to be credible with foreign nations." But President Bush's serial flip-flopping raises serious questions about whether Congress and foreign leaders can rely on what he says.

1. Social Security Surplus

BUSH PLEDGES NOT TO TOUCH SOCIAL SECURITY SURPLUS... "We're going to keep the promise of Social Security and keep the government from raiding the Social Security surplus." [President Bush, 3/3/01]

...BUSH SPENDS SOCIAL SECURITY SURPLUS The New York Times reported that "the president's new budget uses Social Security surpluses to pay for other programs every year through 2013, ultimately diverting more than $1.4 trillion in Social Security funds to other purposes." [The New York Times, 2/6/02]

2. Patient's Right to Sue

GOVERNOR BUSH VETOES PATIENTS' RIGHT TO SUE... "Despite his campaign rhetoric in favor of a patients' bill of rights, Bush fought such a bill tooth and nail as Texas governor, vetoing a bill coauthored by Republican state Rep. John Smithee in 1995. He... constantly opposed a patient's right to sue an HMO over coverage denied that resulted in adverse health effects." [Salon, 2/7/01]

...CANDIDATE BUSH PRAISES TEXAS PATIENTS' RIGHT TO SUE... "We're one of the first states that said you can sue an HMO for denying you proper coverage... It's time for our nation to come together and do what's right for the people. And I think this is right for the people. You know, I support a national patients' bill of rights, Mr. Vice President. And I want all people covered. I don't want the law to supersede good law like we've got in Texas." [Governor Bush, 10/17/00]

...PRESIDENT BUSH'S ADMINISTRATION ARGUES AGAINST RIGHT TO SUE "To let two Texas consumers, Juan Davila and Ruby R. Calad, sue their managed-care companies for wrongful denials of medical benefits ‘would be to completely undermine' federal law regulating employee benefits, Assistant Solicitor General James A. Feldman said at oral argument March 23. Moreover, the administration's brief attacked the policy rationale for Texas's law, which is similar to statutes on the books in nine other states." [Washington Post, 4/5/04]

3. Tobacco Buyout

BUSH SUPPORTS CURRENT TOBACCO FARMERS' QUOTA SYSTEM... "They've got the quota system in place -- the allotment system -- and I don't think that needs to be changed." [President Bush, 5/04]

...BUSH ADMINISTRATION WILL SUPPORT FEDERAL BUYOUT OF TOBACCO QUOTAS "The administration is open to a buyout." [White House spokeswoman Jeanie Mamo, 6/18/04]

4. North Korea

BUSH WILL NOT OFFER NUCLEAR NORTH KOREA INCENTIVES TO DISARM... "We developed a bold approach under which, if the North addressed our long-standing concerns, the United States was prepared to take important steps that would have significantly improved the lives of the North Korean people. Now that North Korea's covert nuclear weapons program has come to light, we are unable to pursue this approach." [President's Statement, 11/15/02]

...BUSH ADMINISTRATION OFFERS NORTH KOREA INCENTIVES TO DISARM"Well, we will work to take steps to ease their political and economic isolation. So there would be -- what you would see would be some provisional or temporary proposals that would only lead to lasting benefit after North Korea dismantles its nuclear programs. So there would be some provisional or temporary efforts of that nature." [White House Press Secretary Scott McClellan, 6/23/04]

5. Abortion

BUSH SUPPORTS A WOMAN'S RIGHT TO CHOOSE... "Bush said he...favors leaving up to a woman and her doctor the abortion question." [The Nation, 6/15/00, quoting the Lubbock Avalanche-Journal, 5/78]

...BUSH OPPOSES A WOMAN'S RIGHT TO CHOOSE "I am pro-life." [Governor Bush, 10/3/00]

6. OPEC

BUSH PROMISES TO FORCE OPEC TO LOWER PRICES... "What I think the president ought to do [when gas prices spike] is he ought to get on the phone with the OPEC cartel and say we expect you to open your spigots...And the president of the United States must jawbone OPEC members to lower the price." [President Bush, 1/26/00]

...BUSH REFUSES TO LOBBY OPEC LEADERS With gas prices soaring in the United States at the beginning of 2004, the Miami Herald reported the president refused to "personally lobby oil cartel leaders to change their minds." [Miami Herald, 4/1/04]

7. Iraq Funding

BUSH SPOKESMAN DENIES NEED FOR ADDITIONAL FUNDS FOR THE REST OF 2004... "We do not anticipate requesting supplemental funding for '04" [White House Budget Director Joshua Bolton, 2/2/04]

...BUSH REQUESTS ADDITIONAL FUNDS FOR IRAQ FOR 2004 "I am requesting that Congress establish a $25 billion contingency reserve fund for the coming fiscal year to meet all commitments to our troops." [President Bush, Statement by President, 5/5/04]

8. Condoleeza Rice Testimony

BUSH SPOKESMAN SAYS RICE WON'T TESTIFY AS 'A MATTER OF PRINCIPLE'... "Again, this is not her personal preference; this goes back to a matter of principle. There is a separation of powers issue involved here. Historically, White House staffers do not testify before legislative bodies. So it's a matter of principle, not a matter of preference." [White House Press Secretary Scott McClellan, 3/9/04]

...BUSH ORDERS RICE TO TESTIFY: "Today I have informed the Commission on Terrorist Attacks Against the United States that my National Security Advisor, Dr. Condoleezza Rice, will provide public testimony." [President Bush, 3/30/04]

9. Science

BUSH PLEDGES TO ISSUE REGULATIONS BASED ON SCIENCE..."I think we ought to have high standards set by agencies that rely upon science, not by what may feel good or what sounds good." [then-Governor George W. Bush, 1/15/00]

...BUSH ADMINISTRATION REGULATIONS IGNORE SCIENCE "60 leading scientists—including Nobel laureates, leading medical experts, former federal agency directors and university chairs and presidents—issued a statement calling for regulatory and legislative action to restore scientific integrity to federal policymaking. According to the scientists, the Bush administration has, among other abuses, suppressed and distorted scientific analysis from federal agencies, and taken actions that have undermined the quality of scientific advisory panels." [Union of Concerned Scientists, 2/18/04]

10. Ahmed Chalabi

BUSH INVITES CHALABI TO STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS...President Bush also met with Chalabi during his brief trip to Iraq last Thanksgiving [White House Documents 1/20/04, 11/27/03]

...BUSH MILITARY ASSISTS IN RAID OF CHALABI'S HOUSE "U.S. soldiers raided the home of America's one-time ally Ahmad Chalabi on Thursday and seized documents and computers." [Washington Post, 5/20/04]

11. Department of Homeland Security

BUSH OPPOSES THE DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY..."So, creating a Cabinet office doesn't solve the problem. You still will have agencies within the federal government that have to be coordinated. So the answer is that creating a Cabinet post doesn't solve anything." [White House spokesman Ari Fleischer, 3/19/02]

...BUSH SUPPORTS THE DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY "So tonight, I ask the Congress to join me in creating a single, permanent department with an overriding and urgent mission: securing the homeland of America and protecting the American people." [President Bush, Address to the Nation, 6/6/02]

12. Weapons of Mass Destruction

BUSH SAYS WE FOUND THE WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION..."We found the weapons of mass destruction. We found biological laboratories...for those who say we haven't found the banned manufacturing devices or banned weapons, they're wrong, we found them." [President Bush, Interview in Poland, 5/29/03]

...BUSH SAYS WE HAVEN'T FOUND WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION "David Kay has found the capacity to produce weapons.And when David Kay goes in and says we haven't found stockpiles yet, and there's theories as to where the weapons went. They could have been destroyed during the war. Saddam and his henchmen could have destroyed them as we entered into Iraq. They could be hidden. They could have been transported to another country, and we'll find out." [President Bush, Meet the Press, 2/7/04]

13. Free Trade

BUSH SUPPORTS FREE TRADE... "I believe strongly that if we promote trade, and when we promote trade, it will help workers on both sides of this issue." [President Bush in Peru, 3/23/02]

...BUSH SUPPORTS RESTRICTIONS ON TRADE "In a decision largely driven by his political advisers, President Bush set aside his free-trade principles last year and imposed heavy tariffs on imported steel to help out struggling mills in Pennsylvania and West Virginia, two states crucial for his reelection." [Washington Post, 9/19/03]

14. Osama Bin Laden

BUSH WANTS OSAMA DEAD OR ALIVE... "I want justice. And there's an old poster out West, I recall, that says, 'Wanted: Dead or Alive.'" [President Bush, on Osama Bin Laden, 09/17/01]

...BUSH DOESN'T CARE ABOUT OSAMA "I don't know where he is.You know, I just don't spend that much time on him... I truly am not that concerned about him."[President Bush, Press Conference, 3/13/02]

15. The Environment

BUSH SUPPORTS MANDATORY CAPS ON CARBON DIOXIDE... "[If elected], Governor Bush will work to...establish mandatory reduction targets for emissions of four main pollutants: sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxide, mercury and carbon dioxide." [Bush Environmental Plan, 9/29/00]

...BUSH OPPOSES MANDATORY CAPS ON CARBON DIOXIDE "I do not believe, however, that the government should impose on power plants mandatory emissions reductions for carbon dioxide, which is not a 'pollutant' under the Clean Air Act." [President Bush, Letter to Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE), 3/13/03]

16. WMD Commission

BUSH RESISTS AN OUTSIDE INVESTIGATION ON WMD INTELLIGENCE FAILURE... "The White House immediately turned aside the calls from Kay and many Democrats for an immediate outside investigation, seeking to head off any new wide-ranging election-year inquiry that might go beyond reports already being assembled by congressional committees and the Central Intelligence Agency." [NY Times, 1/29/04]

...BUSH SUPPORTS AN OUTSIDE INVESTIGATION ON WMD INTELLIGENCE FAILURE "Today, by executive order, I am creating an independent commission, chaired by Governor and former Senator Chuck Robb, Judge Laurence Silberman, to look at American intelligence capabilities, especially our intelligence about weapons of mass destruction." [President Bush, 2/6/04]

17. Creation of the 9/11 Commission

BUSH OPPOSES CREATION OF INDEPENDENT 9/11 COMMISSION... "President Bush took a few minutes during his trip to Europe Thursday to voice his opposition to establishing a special commission to probe how the government dealt with terror warnings before Sept. 11." [CBS News, 5/23/02]

...BUSH SUPPORTS CREATION OF INDEPENDENT 9/11 COMMISSION "President Bush said today he now supports establishing an independent commission to investigate the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks." [ABC News, 09/20/02]

18. Time Extension for 9/11 Commission

BUSH OPPOSES TIME EXTENSION FOR 9/11 COMMISSION... "President Bush and House Speaker J. Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) have decided to oppose granting more time to an independent commission investigating the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks." [Washington Post, 1/19/04]

...BUSH SUPPORTS TIME EXTENSION FOR 9/11 COMMISSION "The White House announced Wednesday its support for a request from the commission investigating the September 11, 2001 attacks for more time to complete its work." [CNN, 2/4/04]

19. One Hour Limit for 9/11 Commission Testimony

BUSH LIMITS TESTIMONY IN FRONT OF 9/11 COMMISSION TO ONE HOUR... "President Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney have placed strict limits on the private interviews they will grant to the federal commission investigating the Sept. 11 attacks, saying that they will meet only with the panel's top two officials and that Mr. Bush will submit to only a single hour of questioning, commission members said Wednesday." [NY Times, 2/26/04]

...BUSH SETS NO TIMELIMIT FOR TESTIMONY "The president's going to answer all of the questions they want to raise. Nobody's watching the clock." [White House spokesman Scott McClellan, 3/10/04]

20. Gay Marriage

BUSH SAYS GAY MARRIAGE IS A STATE ISSUE... "The state can do what they want to do. Don't try to trap me in this state's issue like you're trying to get me into." [Gov. George W. Bush on Gay Marriage, Larry King Live, 2/15/00]

...BUSH SUPPORTS CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT BANNING GAY MARRIAGE "Today I call upon the Congress to promptly pass, and to send to the states for ratification, an amendment to our Constitution defining and protecting marriage as a union of man and woman as husband and wife." [President Bush, 2/24/04]

21. Nation Building

BUSH OPPOSES NATION BUILDING... "If we don't stop extending our troops all around the world in nation-building missions, then we're going to have a serious problem coming down the road." [Gov. George W. Bush, 10/3/00]

...BUSH SUPPORTS NATION BUILDING "We will be changing the regime of Iraq, for the good of the Iraqi people." [President Bush, 3/6/03]

22. Saddam/al Qaeda Link

BUSH SAYS IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO DISTINGUISH BETWEEEN AL QAEDA AND SADDAM... "You can't distinguish between al Qaeda and Saddam when you talk about the war on terror." [President Bush, 9/25/02]

...BUSH SAYS SADDAM HAD NO ROLE IN AL QAEDA PLOT "We've had no evidence that Saddam Hussein was involved in Sept. 11." [President Bush, 9/17/03]

23. U.N. Resolution

BUSH VOWS TO HAVE A UN VOTE NO MATTER WHAT... "No matter what the whip count is, we're calling for the vote. We want to see people stand up and say what their opinion is about Saddam Hussein and the utility of the United Nations Security Council. And so, you bet. It's time for people to show their cards, to let the world know where they stand when it comes to Saddam." [President Bush 3/6/03]

...BUSH WITHDRAWS REQUEST FOR VOTE "At a National Security Council meeting convened at the White House at 8:55 a.m., Bush finalized the decision to withdraw the resolution from consideration and prepared to deliver an address to the nation that had already been written." [Washington Post, 3/18/03]

24. Involvement in the Palestinian Conflict

BUSH OPPOSES SUMMITS... "Well, we've tried summits in the past, as you may remember. It wasn't all that long ago where a summit was called and nothing happened, and as a result we had significant intifada in the area." [President Bush, 04/05/02]

...BUSH SUPPORTS SUMMITS "If a meeting advances progress toward two states living side by side in peace, I will strongly consider such a meeting. I'm committed to working toward peace in the Middle East." [President Bush, 5/23/03]

25. Campaign Finance

BUSH OPPOSES MCCAIN-FEINGOLD... "George W. Bush opposes McCain-Feingold...as an infringement on free expression." [Washington Post, 3/28/2000]

...BUSH SIGNS MCCAIN-FEINGOLD INTO LAW "[T]his bill improves the current system of financing for Federal campaigns, and therefore I have signed it into law." [President Bush, at the McCain-Feingold signing ceremony, 03/27/02]

26. 527s

Bush opposes restrictions on 527s: "I also have reservations about the constitutionality of the broad ban on issue advertising [in McCain Feingold], which restrains the speech of a wide variety of groups on issues of public import." [President Bush, 3/27/02]

…Bush says 527s bad for system: "I don't think we ought to have 527s. I can't be more plain about it…I think they're bad for the system. That's why I signed the bill, McCain-Feingold." [President Bush, 8/23/04]

27. Medical Records

Bush says medical records must remain private: "I believe that we must protect…the right of every American to have confidence that his or her personal medical records will remain private." [President Bush, 4/12/01]

…Bush says patients' histories are not confidntial: The Justice Department…asserts that patients "no longer possess a reasonable expectation that their histories will remain completely confidential." [BusinessWeek, 4/30/04]

28. Timelines For Dictators

Bush sets timeline for Saddam: "If Iraq does not accept the terms within a week of passage or fails to disclose required information within 30 days, the resolution authorizes 'all necessary means' to force compliance--in other words, a military attack." [LA Times, 10/3/02]

…Bush says he's against timelines: "I don't think you give timelines to dictators." [President Bush, 8/27/04]

29. The Great Lakes

Bush wants to divert great lakes: "Even though experts say 'diverting any water from the Great Lakes region sets a bad precedent' Bush 'said he wants to talk to Canadian Prime Minister Jean Chrétien about piping water to parched states in the west and southwest.'– [AP, 7/19/01]

Bush says he'll never divert Great Lakes: "We've got to use our resources wisely, like water. It starts with keeping the Great Lakes water in the Great Lakes Basin...My position is clear: We're never going to allow diversion of Great Lakes water." [President Bush, 8/16/04]

30. Winning The War On Terror

Bush claims he can win the war on terror: "One of the interesting things people ask me, now that we're asking questions, is, can you ever win the war on terror? Of course, you can." [President Bush, 4/13/04]

…Bush says war on terror is unwinnable: "I don't think you can win [the war on terror]." [President Bush, 8/30/04]

…Bush says he will win the war on terror: "Make no mistake about it, we are winning and we will win [the war on terror]." [President Bush, 8/31/04]

[GioFX]

Da BBC News:

New Florida vote scandal feared

By Greg Palast
Reporting for BBC's Newsnight

A secret document obtained from inside Bush campaign headquarters in Florida suggests a plan - possibly in violation of US law - to disrupt voting in the state's African-American voting districts, a BBC Newsnight investigation reveals.

Two e-mails, prepared for the executive director of the Bush campaign in Florida and the campaign's national research director in Washington DC, contain a 15-page so-called "caging list". It lists 1,886 names and addresses of voters in predominantly black and traditionally Democrat areas of Jacksonville, Florida.

An elections supervisor in Tallahassee, when shown the list, told Newsnight: "The only possible reason why they would keep such a thing is to challenge voters on election day."

Ion Sancho, a Democrat, noted that Florida law allows political party operatives inside polling stations to stop voters from obtaining a ballot.

Mass challenges

They may then only vote "provisionally" after signing an affidavit attesting to their legal voting status.

Mass challenges have never occurred in Florida. Indeed, says Mr Sancho, not one challenge has been made to a voter "in the 16 years I've been supervisor of elections."

"Quite frankly, this process can be used to slow down the voting process and cause chaos on election day; and discourage voters from voting."

Sancho calls it "intimidation." And it may be illegal.

In Washington, well-known civil rights attorney, Ralph Neas, noted that US federal law prohibits targeting challenges to voters, even if there is a basis for the challenge, if race is a factor in targeting the voters.

The list of Jacksonville voters covers an area with a majority of black residents.

When asked by Newsnight for an explanation of the list, Republican spokespersons claim the list merely records returned mail from either fundraising solicitations or returned letters sent to newly registered voters to verify their addresses for purposes of mailing campaign literature.

Republican state campaign spokeswoman Mindy Tucker Fletcher stated the list was not put together "in order to create" a challenge list, but refused to say it would not be used in that manner.

Rather, she did acknowledge that the party's poll workers will be instructed to challenge voters, "Where it's stated in the law."

There was no explanation as to why such clerical matters would be sent to top officials of the Bush campaign in Florida and Washington.

Private detective

In Jacksonville, to determine if Republicans were using the lists or other means of intimidating voters, we filmed a private detective filming every "early voter" - the majority of whom are black - from behind a vehicle with blacked-out windows.
The private detective claimed not to know who was paying for his all-day services.

On the scene, Democratic Congresswoman Corinne Brown said the surveillance operation was part of a campaign of intimidation tactics used by the Republican Party to intimate and scare off African American voters, almost all of whom are registered Democrats.

Greg Palast's film will be broadcast by Newsnight on Tuesday, 26 October, 2004.

Newsnight is broadcast on BBC Two at 2230 BST every weeknight in the UK.

[tatrat4d]

The Guardian, 23 ottobre 2004:

On November 2, the entire civilised world will be praying, praying Bush loses. And Sod's law dictates he'll probably win, thereby disproving the existence of God once and for all. The world will endure four more years of idiocy, arrogance and unwarranted bloodshed, with no benevolent deity to watch over and save us. John Wilkes Booth, Lee Harvey Oswald, John Hinckley Jr - where are you now that we need you?

Charlie Brooker.

P.S. Secondo il quotidiano inglese da intendersi come uno scherzo.

[tatrat4d]

-6 all'Election Night.
La situazione è sempre equilibratissima, ma al momento è forse Kerry ad avere i favori del pronostico.
Nel voto popolare la forbice si sta chiudendo, ma probabilmente Bush è ancora in testa (da 1 a 3 punti). Molto complesso è invece districarsi nel collegio elettorale e nell'analisi Stato per Stato.

Gli Stati certi per Bush dovrebbero essere:
AL (9) AK (3) AZ (10) GA (15) ID (4) IN (11) KS (6) KY (8) LA (9) MS (6) MT (3) NE (5) ND (3) OK (7) SC (8) SD (3) TN (11) TX (34) UT (5) VA (13) WY (3)

Per un totale di 176 grandi elettori.

A questi vanno aggiunti quelli probabili:
WV (5) 80% di possibilità per Bush
NC (15) 70%
MO (11) 80%

il che porta la base di partenza di Bush a 207.

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Kerry si dovrebbe invece assicurare con certezza:
CA (55) CT (7) DE (3) IL (21) MD (10) MA (12) NY (31) RI (4)
VT (3) DC (3) ME (4)

Totale 153

Probabili:
HI (4) 75% di possibilità per Kerry
MI (17) 75%
NJ (15) 80%
OR (7) 65%
WA (11) 70%

Lo "zoccolo duro" di Kerry dovrebbe quindi ugualmente essere di 207.

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Rimangono quindi disponibili 11 Stati per 124 voti elettorali.

Secondo me Kerry ha le carte migliori in:
PA (21) OH (20) NH (4) MN (10) arrivando così a 262

Bush lo si vede meglio in:
AR (6) CO (9) IA (7) NV (5) arrivando così a 234

Sembra impossibile assegnare al momento una preferenza per NM (5) WI (10) e la solita FL (27). Nei primi due forse Bush ha un'incollatura di vantaggio, mentre la Florida, senza la quale Bush non può vincere, è esattamente alla pari.
Per questa ragione Kerry ha secondo me qualche chances in più al momento.

P.S. Ho fatto l'analisi sulla base di tutti i sondaggi disponibili, analizzando anche le serie storiche. Non mancano perciò singoli sondaggi, anche recenti, che contraddicano il mio pronostico (che diano Bush in testa in Ohio e Minnesota o Kerry in Florida e Wisconsin, per citare degli esempi).

[tatrat4d]

Dimenticavo: si vince a 270
Con il pareggio a 269 vincerebbe Bush perchè il GOP controlla più delegazioni degli Stati al Congresso.

[Paracleto]

Originariamente inviato da GioFX eccetera

:ASD:

cos'è
scandalo preventivo?

la dottrina democratica del broglio preventivo

[GioFX]

Da BBC News:

Bush website blocked outside US

Surfers outside the US have been unable to visit the official re-election site of President George W Bush.

The blocking of browsers sited outside the US began in the early hours of Monday morning.

Since then people outside the US trying to browse the site get a message saying they are not authorised to view it.

The blocking does not appear to be due to an attack by vandals or malicious hackers, but as a result of a policy decision by the Bush camp.

Traffic control

The international exclusion zone around georgewbush.com was spotted by net monitoring firm Netcraft which keeps an eye on traffic patterns across many different sites.

Netcraft said that since the early hours of 25 October attempts to view the site through its monitoring stations in London, Amsterdam and Sydney failed.

By contrast Netcraft's four monitoring stations in the US managed to view the site with no problems.

The site can still be seen using anonymous proxy services that are based in the US. Some web users in Canada also report that they can browse the site.

The pattern of traffic to the website suggests that the blocking was not due to an attack by vandals or politically motivated hackers.

Geographic blocking works because the numerical addresses that the net uses to organise itself are handed out on a regional basis.

On 21 October, the George W Bush website began using the services of a company called Akamai to ensure that the pages, videos and other content on its site reaches visitors.

Mike Prettejohn, president of Netcraft, speculated that the blocking decision might have been taken to cut costs, and traffic, in the run-up to the election on 2 November.

He said the site may see no reason to distribute content to people who will not be voting next week.

Managing traffic could also be a good way to ensure that the site stays working in the closing days of the election campaign.

However, simply blocking non-US visitors also means that Americans overseas are barred too.

Akamai declined to comment, saying it could not talk about customer websites.

[GioFX]

risparmiare, ROTFL!!! che scusa idiota... con centinaia di milioni di dollari per la campagna... e i cittadini americani all'estero?!?

cmq, guardate che idioti i gestori del sito, bloccano il dominio, e non l'IP...

65.172.163.222

[Amu_rg550]

Originariamente inviato da GioFX
risparmiare, ROTFL!!! che scusa idiota... con centinaia di milioni di dollari per la campagna... e i cittadini americani all'estero?!?

cmq, guardate che idioti i gestori del sito, bloccano il dominio, e non l'IP...

65.172.163.222

tra l'altro è un ostacolo aggirabile con un banale proxy anonimo..
è il caso di dire: genius at works

tra l'altro, non ci pensa ai suoi militari in iraq?

[Amu_rg550]

intanto secondo zogby kerry sarebbe passato in vantaggio in uno stato cruciale, l'ohio.

[tatrat4d]

Originariamente inviato da Amu_rg550
intanto secondo zogby kerry sarebbe passato in vantaggio in uno stato cruciale, l'ohio.

Se c'è un sondaggio da non seguire assolutamente è quello di Zogby sugli stati. Alcuni esempi: Bush in 7 giorni ha guadagnato 18 punti in New Mexico, 10 punti in tre giorni in Michigan e Kerry 6 in Ohio, sempre in 3 giorni. Poi nello specifico è più che probabile che Kerry sia in vantaggio in Ohio, ma Zogby ammette di adattare i numeri ai suoi "feelings", per cui...cautela.
Quello che mi preoccupa è che dopo mesi che pronostica la vittoria di Kerry ha cambiato idea e ora sostiene che Bush vada a vincere. Visti i precedenti chi spera nella rielezione può cominciare a toccarsi.

[GioFX]

ma quando zogby avrebbe pronosticato la vittoria di Kerry da mesi? ma se è stato in testa solo in due brevi periodi, qualche settimana fa e oggi?

io cmq credo che tutti questi sondaggi siano inutili, è impossibile che la gente cambi idea ogni giorno, io dico aspettiamo le elezioni, anche se per avere il nuovo presidente probabilmente bisognerà attendere, casini e referendum permettendo, probabilmente a gennaio.

[tatrat4d]

Originariamente inviato da GioFX
ma quando zogby avrebbe pronosticato la vittoria di Kerry da mesi? ma se è stato in testa solo in due brevi periodi, qualche settimana fa e oggi?

Non parlo di sondaggi condotti su 400 persone, ma delle sue analisi. Trovo il link di solo una settimana fa.

io cmq credo che tutti questi sondaggi siano inutili, è impossibile che la gente cambi idea ogni giorno, io dico aspettiamo le elezioni, anche se per avere il nuovo presidente probabilmente bisognerà attendere, casini e referendum permettendo, probabilmente a gennaio.

Sarò ingenuo, ma questa volta credo che basti aspettare le 5 del mattino italiano il 3 novembre.

[tatrat4d]

http://simonworld.mu.nu/archives/050971.php

Per ora ho trovato questo, che, seppur in forma indiretta, credo riporti fedelmente quelle che erano le opinioni di Zogby.

http://www.townhall.com/columnists/r...20041028.shtml

Queste sarebbero invece le ragioni che farebbero pendere la bilancia verso Bush. Secondo me sono fumose come le precedenti, perchè basate su analisi dei sottogruppi elettorali che non sono certo scientifiche: considerate le 350/400 interviste al giorno questo se ne esce con considerazioni sul voto delle donne bianche alte un metro e 75 sposate da più di 5 anni e meno di 10.
Scherzo ovviamente, ma rende l'idea.

[Amu_rg550]

Originariamente inviato da tatrat4d
Se c'è un sondaggio da non seguire assolutamente è quello di Zogby sugli stati. Alcuni esempi: Bush in 7 giorni ha guadagnato 18 punti in New Mexico, 10 punti in tre giorni in Michigan e Kerry 6 in Ohio, sempre in 3 giorni. Poi nello specifico è più che probabile che Kerry sia in vantaggio in Ohio, ma Zogby ammette di adattare i numeri ai suoi "feelings", per cui...cautela.
Quello che mi preoccupa è che dopo mesi che pronostica la vittoria di Kerry ha cambiato idea e ora sostiene che Bush vada a vincere. Visti i precedenti chi spera nella rielezione può cominciare a toccarsi.

ma infatti io ho usato deliberatamente il condizionale, e già alcuni post fa ho espresso i miei dubbi sul seguire alla lettera tutti questi numeri .

su zogby: magari non sarà il più attendibile, ma è sicuramente uno dei + seguiti.
il sondaggio sull'ohio in questione segue la tappa contemporanea in quello stato dei 2 contendenti: non credo che stravolga completamente lo stato dei fatti, bensì rifletta un umore che varia di continuo tra gli indecisi.
sicuramente sarà accentuato e i dati non saranno accuratissimi, ma dubito che la realtà sia molto distante da come viene presentata.
ripeto: io da questi numeri leggo delle indicazioni in linea di massima, presi alla lettera non mi dicono nulla.

comunque, certo che se fosse veramente così alla fine, bush subirebbe un colpo notevole.

[tatrat4d]

Piccola avvertenza riguardo ai grandi elettori: entrambi i candidati hanno un problema.
Un grande elettore di Bush nella lista della West Virginia ha dichiarato che, pur non votando Kerry, probabilmente esprimerà il suo voto a favore di un repubblicano diverso da Bush.
In Ohio invece, tra i grandi elettori indicati da Kerry c'è un membro del congresso, il che è contrario al dettato costituzionale. Nel caso che Kerry vinca in Ohio corre il rischio di potere contare su soli 19 voti elettorali, anzichè sui 20 in dote.

[tatrat4d]

Qualcuno riesce a procurarsi una sorta di guida sulla notte elettorale, dalla quale si possa ricavare a che ora uno stato finisce di votare e viene reso noto il risultato?
Intendo: all'ora X lo Stato x viene assegnato a Mr. x
Chiaro no?