[56k warning] Uragano Katrina

[GioFX]

No electricity for 6 weeks. All mobile homes are expected to be destroyed. Water and sewer damage expected to be severe. Damage to levees will leave area vulnerable to additional flooding for a very long time.

NO Webcam

[GioFX]

It's right on track taking the eye over or near New Orleans within the next 24 hours. It's no Camille, tho.

The city is about 5-10' below sea level. Storm surge is estimated at 20-25', with waves that much higher overtopping the surge. Even the people planning on weathering this storm in those old buildings in the Vieux Carre are not going to do well. Those are only 3 stories high and hardly high enough to withstand the battering of a category 5 storm.

The City should have been evacuated, entirely. The likeness to the disaster at Galveston 1900 just will not go away, here. This storm is far, far more dangerous than Betsy 40 years ago. I recall seeing a program about N'Orleans a few years ago, where they had absolutely NO possibility of draining off the flooding of the city after a storm of this magnitude for at least a month.

The levees will be overtopped easily & the whole old city will flood. The large hotel sky rises along Canal St. will have most of their unboarded windows broken and will probably do reasonably well, altho the wind damage to their windows, outer rooms and roofing will be terrible.

Then there will be the tornadoes as seen with Andrew, which was very much like Katrina is, now.

New Orleans should be evacuated, as much as possible, on an emergency basis. It's better to be cold and wet, than drowned and dead. That's what happened at Galveston, with the loss of over 6000 lives.

The similarity of N'Orleans 2005 to Galveston 1900 is just too scary.

I have a very bad feeling about this.

[GioFX]

AUGUST 28 - 12:05 AM CDT - SPECIAL STORM UPDATE

CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE APPROACHING NEW ORLEANS REGION

CURRENT POSITION / NOTEWORTHY REPORTS PAST HOUR

KATRINA LOCATED 26.1N / 88.1W or 290 miles SSE of Gulfport, MS. - 275 miles SSE of downtown
New Orleans - and 240 miles SSE of Port Eads at the southern tip of the Mississippi Delta.
Katrina is heading just north of DUE Northwest at 9Kts (10 MPH) over the past 2 hours

RECON Reports:

Pressure 907mb ( DOWN 42MB IN 24 HRS)
MAX Flight Level wind 166KTS - SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 175MPH - GUSTS TO 200MPH. EYEWALL DIAMETER IS STEADY AT 22NM
CREW REPORTS 'PERFECT STADIUM EFFECT'



Hurricane Katrina is now as strong as Hurricane Camille in 1969 - but this storm is larger, and will cause more
extensive damage, and if it strikes New Orleans at 'just the right angle' - will no doubt MAY lead to the greatest
loss of life from a land falling hurricane in nearly 100 years.

The exact track - and even the exact intensity of Katrina at landfall is still simply too difficult to predict with the
type of precision everyone would like. As discussed extensively over the past few days, the overall environment
surrounding Katrina was expected to become as conducive to the development of a CAT 5 hurricane that scientists
are able to determine. One o the biggest 'unknowns' - and lowest skill forecast - are for storm intensity. Ironically,
this is especially true when trying to forecast intensities in the near-term -- 24 hours or less.


Unlike Track forecast accuracy, which improves as the time of landfall approaches, intensity forecasts exhibit only
slightly better skill than pure chance, when in the 0-24 hour outlook period. MANY factors come into play that
cause this, including the fact that we still do not know 'everything' we need to know about how hurricane work.
As a result, one of the biggest changes that occur with a hurricane that affect intensity are the eye wall replacement
cycles - also talked about extensively in the past 2 days. There is no real telling when an eye wall replacement
cycle will start, or how long it will last. However, the first signs of it are normally when the eye diameter starts
shrinking to near or below 10NM.

Last night, when Katrina bean intensifying rapidly, the eye was 40NM across. Even around 2AM, the eye had only
shrunk to 38NM, yet the pressure had already fallen to 935mb. I have never seen (in 35 years of watching) a storm
of such intensity, with such a large eye. 5 hours later, we find an eye that is 22NM across, and the pressure has fallen
some 28mb -- and the winds responded immediately by increasing to a strong CAT intensity.

The question is - will the eye continue to shrink over the coming hours (which by the way would cause the winds
to increase even more all things being equal) -- and then cause the storm to enter an eye wall replacement cycle.
What could be a 'fooler' is that the eye might get down to around 15NM-18NM and then start to re-cycle. We are
in uncharted territory in this regard. The '10NM or less rule of thumb' may not apply to what is about the most
intense hurricane in recorded history (in the Atlantic basin). In any event, once the eye wall goes through regeneration,
the pressure will rise, and the maximum winds will decrease as the developing outer eyewall will be of much greater
diameter. A replacement cycle can run from 6 to 18 hours. Another possibility, is that Katrina may start doing a
different variation on the theme - that is - rapid eye wall cycling. VERY intense hurricanes have done this before.
IVAN went through this type of rapid cycling while in was in the Caribbean. This is where the eye shrinks to near 5-8NM
while a new wall forms at around 15NM. This replacement cycle lasts for 2-4 hours -- and the period of slightly higher
pressure, and lower winds is relatively brief. This may have the highest probability of happening. No doubt this entire
process is related to why historically, Atlantic basin Hurricanes rarely can maintain CAT 5 intensity for very long periods.
By the time a 12 or 18 cycle completes, the storm is many times in an area that is not as favorable for re-intensification.
Either the water temps are cooler, or the vertical shears are a bit higher, or the storm is closer to land. There is only a
VERY REMOTE possibility that Katrina will not have at least 1 eye wall replacement during the next 24 hours.

Below are some recent Buoy reports (about 1 hour ago). Note that the storm surge from Katrina is NOT the same thing as
sea swell or wave heights. The storm surge is totally different, and relates to how much the entire ocean rises above normal
tidal height. Similar to a Tsunami. ON TOP of the storm surge, will be the wind driven waves. These wave heights are what
are being shown below, and will be what I pass along as the storm approaches. IVAN produced a wave height of 70 feet that
destroyed an oil platform. Katrina, IF IT MAINTAINS ITS CURRENT INTENSITY, will cause wave heights of 80-100 feet
over the open ocean -depending on just how fast the storm is moving by any given area at the time. The full
force winds of 175mph, and gusts to 200mph is likely only occurring across an arcing shaped rectangular area roughly
5 miles wide by 30 miles long, adjacent to the NE portion of the eyewall. That is the area where the 80-100ft waves would
be occurring. Assuming Katrina cuts across the Delta with the TRUE CENTER passing over Borne at it's current
intensity, a 24-28 foot storm surge will hit the Delta and the Bay St. Louis area, where wind driven waves will be about 50 feet.

Because of the extraordinary nature of this event -- my updates will vary considerably from 'normal'. Only highly relevant
images and analysis will be provided. I will attempt to issue 1 'Major Update' around 8PM CDT tonight.

[IpseDixit]

Originariamente inviato da muso

NewOrleans è sotto al livello del mare,potrebbe essere un vero disastro..

Parlano di onde di 5/6 metri.

[igiolo]

Originariamente inviato da muso

La pressione è 906 quindi dovrebbe essere ancora 4 di sempre:

record da battere: Gilbert 888mb - Keys 892mb - Camille 905mb - Ivan 910mb - Andrew 922mb

Dovrebbe sorpassare e a meno di sorprese arrivare all'apice a circa 900 mb..
Un bel mostro !!!

Dovrebbe fare Landfall a categoria 5Low ...

NewOrleans è sotto al livello del mare,potrebbe essere un vero disastro..

spiega spiega..

[momo-racing]

altra domanda da ignorante: quante sono le reali possibilità che riescano a evacuare completamente la città entro domani?

[IpseDixit]

Qui trovate alcune webcam.

[GioFX]

Originariamente inviato da momo-racing

altra domanda da ignorante: quante sono le reali possibilità che riescano a evacuare completamente la città entro domani?

circa metà della città si è già spostata, ma non credo che riusciranno ad evacuare 1 milione di abitanti entro la serata.

[muso]

Originariamente inviato da momo-racing

altra domanda da ignorante: quante sono le reali possibilità che riescano a evacuare completamente la città entro domani?

Molti non vogliono lasciare la città..

[Swisström]

Originariamente inviato da IpseDixit

Qui trovate alcune webcam.

molto interessante, grazie mille del link

[Swisström]

Originariamente inviato da GioFX

circa metà della città si è già spostata, ma non credo che riusciranno ad evacuare 1 milione di abitanti entro la serata.

comunque ok new orleans, ma le altre città che verranno toccate??? si sta evacuando solo new orleans?

[muso]

902 mb
Terzo uragano di sempre!

[muso]

[muso]

KATRINA: L'APPELLO DI BUSH, "METTETEVI IN SALVO"

George W. Bush ha lanciato un accorato appello agli abitanti delle zone in cui transitera' l'uragano Katrina a mettersi in salvo. "Non possiamo sottolineare abbastanza il pericolo che questo uragano pone", ha avvertito il presidente americano Bush dal suo ranch di Crawford, in Texas, "chiedo ai cittadini di mettere al primo posto la loro incolumita' e quella delle proprie famiglie trasferendosi in zone sicure e seguendo le indicazioni delle autoroita' locali". Bush, che ha dichiarato lo stato d'emergenza per la Louisiana e lo stato di calamita' per il Mississippi, ha promesso l'impegno dell'Amministrazione per le aree del Golfo del Messico investite dall'uragano: "Faremo tutto quanto in nostro potere per aiutare le popolazioni"

[IpseDixit]

Se non ho capito male New Orleans è circondata da fiumi i cui argini sono più alti della città, il timore è che gli argini non reggano l'urto

[muso]

Originariamente inviato da IpseDixit

Se non ho capito male New Orleans è circondata da fiumi i cui argini sono più alti della città, il timore è che gli argini non reggano l'urto

In piu il lago a nord
http://mq-mapgend.websys.aol.com/?e=...a%3agz7n%26%40

[muso]

Storm KATRINA: Observed by NOAA #3
Storm #12 In Atlantic Ocean
Total Flights For Storm #12: 18
Date/Time of Recon Report: August 28, 2005 17:55 Zulu
Position Of The Center: 26 ° 20 ' N 88 ° 39 ' W (26.33° N 88.65° W)
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 700 Millibars: 2242 Meters (Normal: 3011 Meters)
Maximum Surface Winds Were Estimated At: Knots (0 MPH)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured At: N/A Nautical Miles (N/A miles) From Center At Bearing °
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 160 Knots (184 MPH) From 140°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 22 Nautical Miles (25.3 Miles) From Center At Bearing 050°
Minimum Pressure: 902 Millibars (26.635 Inches)
Maxium Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Outside The Eye: 14°C (57.2°F) / 3050 Meters
Maximum Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Inside The Eye: 29°C (84.2°F) / 3064 Meters
Dewpoint Temperature / Sea Surface Temperature Inside The Eye: 6°C (42.8°F) / NA°C (NA°F)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: CLOSED WALL
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being: C25
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 700 Millibars
Navigational Accuracy Measured At: 1 Nautical Miles
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At: 1 Nautical Miles

Other Information:
1: Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 160 KTS NE Quadrant at 1743Z
2: EXCELLENT RADAR PRESENTATION

[Amu_rg550]

nel caso dobbiate postare immagini molto pesanti come nel caso di ipsedixit (direi che è il caso di editare ) mettete solo il link tnx.

[GioFX]

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

..DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED


HURRICANE KATRINA
A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED
STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY
VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
KILLED.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE
CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE
OUTSIDE!

[Palli]

o mio dio.