Moriremo tutti tra 35 anni

[niko974]

http://tv.repubblica.it/copertina/un...ra/29171?video

[sander4]

moriremo tutti....

[D.O.S.]

un cratere di 5 km non è poi così grande e si può sbriciolare il meteorite in pezzettini sparandogli addosso dei missili.

[jan]

ci sono teorie che parlano di morte del pianeta nel 2012 qui non si sa più a chi credere , poi finche c'è mel gibson vivo stiamo tranquilli

[lowenz]

Non date nuove idee a Giacobbo

E poi si sa, Hawass è immortale, ha pure visto nascere Cheope.

[Teox82]

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/

[jan]

Originariamente inviato da Teox82

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/

ma certo che sei proprio una jena aiutaci a decifrare qualcosina almeno , il numero dei potenziali impatti lo si capisce , ma le scale palermo torino etc che significano?

[^TiGeRShArK^]

si,ma avete letto la probabilità d'impatto?
3.4e-04
..diciamo che mi pare un pò bassina...
Penso che sia al livello uno della scala Torino perchè l'inizio della finestra d'impatto parte tra "soli" 39 anni...

[Rand]

Originariamente inviato da ^TiGeRShArK^

si,ma avete letto la probabilità d'impatto?
3.4e-04
..diciamo che mi pare un pò bassina...
Penso che sia al livello uno della scala Torino perchè l'inizio della finestra d'impatto parte tra "soli" 39 anni...

L'asteroide citato nella notizia è 2009 BD81, che ha un probabilità di impatto di 8.3e-09.

Originariamente inviato da jan

ma certo che sei proprio una jena aiutaci a decifrare qualcosina almeno , il numero dei potenziali impatti lo si capisce , ma le scale palermo torino etc che significano?

Palermo e Torino:

THE PALERMO TECHNICAL IMPACT HAZARD SCALE

The Palermo Technical Impact Hazard Scale was developed to enable NEO specialists to categorize and prioritize potential impact risks spanning a wide range of impact dates, energies and probabilities. Actual scale values less than -2 reflect events for which there are no likely consequences, while Palermo Scale values between -2 and 0 indicate situations that merit careful monitoring. Potential impacts with positive Palermo Scale values will generally indicate situations that merit some level of concern.

The scale compares the likelihood of the detected potential impact with the average risk posed by objects of the same size or larger over the years until the date of the potential impact. This average risk from random impacts is known as the background risk. For convenience the scale is logarithmic, so, for examples, a Palermo Scale value of -2 indicates that the detected potential impact event is only 1% as likely as a random background event occurring in the intervening years, a value of zero indicates that the single event is just as threatening as the background hazard, and a value of +2 indicates an event that is 100 times more likely than a background impact by an object at least as large before the date of the potential impact in question.

The primary reference for the Palermo Technical Scale is a scientific paper entitled "Quantifying the risk posed by potential Earth impacts" by Chesley et al. (Icarus 159, 423-432 (2002)).


PALERMO SCALE FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS

How is the Palermo Scale different from the Torino Scale?
The Torino Scale is designed to communicate to the public the risk associated with a future Earth approach by an asteroid or comet. This scale, which has integer values from 0 to 10, takes into consideration the predicted impact energy of the event as well as its likelihood of actually happening (i.e., the event's impact probability). The Palermo Scale is used by specialists in the field to quantify in more detail the level of concern warranted for a future potential impact possibility. Much of the utility of the Palermo Scale lies in its ability to carefully assess the risk posed by less threatening Torino Scale 0 events, which comprise nearly all of the potential impacts detected to date. Objects are prioritized according to their Palermo Scale values in order to assess the degree to which they should receive additional attention (i.e., observations and analysis). This scale is continuous (both positive and negative values are allowed) and does incorporate the time between the current epoch and the predicted potential impact, as well as the object's predicted impact energy and likelihood of occurrence.

Why is it important to compare each threat with the background?
By estimating the so-called background hazard level of Earth impacts, we define a value for the threat from the entire asteroid and comet population averaged over very long periods of time. Because there are vastly more small asteroids than there are large ones in space, the background impact rate will depend upon the size of the near-Earth asteroid. The background level can be thought of as the usual state of affairs or status quo, and so when the close Earth approach of a large NEA rises above the background level (the Palermo Scale value is then greater than zero) we know this event is out of the ordinary and hence of some concern.

How does one convert from one scale to the other?
Since the Palermo Scale is continuous and it depends upon the number of years until the potential impact, there is no convenient conversion between these two scales. In general, however, if an event rises above the background level, it will achieve both a Palermo and Torino Scale value greater than zero.
...

THE TORINO IMPACT HAZARD SCALE

No Hazard (White Zone)
0
The likelihood of a collision is zero, or is so low as to be effectively zero. Also applies to small objects such as meteors and bodies that burn up in the atmosphere as well as infrequent meteorite falls that rarely cause damage.


Normal (Green Zone)
1
A routine discovery in which a pass near the Earth is predicted that poses no unusual level of danger. Current calculations show the chance of collision is extremely unlikely with no cause for public attention or public concern. New telescopic observations very likely will lead to re-assignment to Level 0.


Meriting Attention by Astronomers (Yellow Zone)
2
A discovery, which may become routine with expanded searches, of an object making a somewhat close but not highly unusual pass near the Earth. While meriting attention by astronomers, there is no cause for public attention or public concern as an actual collision is very unlikely. New telescopic observations very likely will lead to re-assignment to Level 0.
3
A close encounter, meriting attention by astronomers. Current calculations give a 1% or greater chance of collision capable of localized destruction. Most likely, new telescopic observations will lead to re-assignment to Level 0. Attention by public and by public officials is merited if the encounter is less than a decade away.
4
A close encounter, meriting attention by astronomers. Current calculations give a 1% or greater chance of collision capable of regional devastation. Most likely, new telescopic observations will lead to re-assignment to Level 0. Attention by public and by public officials is merited if the encounter is less than a decade away.

Threatening (Orange Zone)
5
A close encounter posing a serious, but still uncertain threat of regional devastation. Critical attention by astronomers is needed to determine conclusively whether or not a collision will occur. If the encounter is less than a decade away, governmental contingency planning may be warranted.
6
A close encounter by a large object posing a serious but still uncertain threat of a global catastrophe. Critical attention by astronomers is needed to determine conclusively whether or not a collision will occur. If the encounter is less than three decades away, governmental contingency planning may be warranted.
7
A very close encounter by a large object, which if occurring this century, poses an unprecedented but still uncertain threat of a global catastrophe. For such a threat in this century, international contingency planning is warranted, especially to determine urgently and conclusively whether or not a collision will occur.


Certain Collisions (Red Zone)
8
A collision is certain, capable of causing localized destruction for an impact over land or possibly a tsunami if close offshore. Such events occur on average between once per 50 years and once per several 1000 years.
9
A collision is certain, capable of causing unprecedented regional devastation for a land impact or the threat of a major tsunami for an ocean impact. Such events occur on average between once per 10,000 years and once per 100,000 years.
10
A collision is certain, capable of causing global climatic catastrophe that may threaten the future of civilization as we know it, whether impacting land or ocean. Such events occur on average once per 100,000 years, or less often.

[Trokji]

Che significa, che probabilità è?

[cometa18]

A quel punto avrei più di 70 anni...Direi che la mia scomparsa non sarebbe una grossa perdita...

Originariamente inviato da ^TiGeRShArK^

si,ma avete letto la probabilità d'impatto?
3.4e-04
..diciamo che mi pare un pò bassina...
Penso che sia al livello uno della scala Torino perchè l'inizio della finestra d'impatto parte tra "soli" 39 anni...

bassina? direi che è fin troppo alta

[blade9722]

Originariamente inviato da D.O.S.

un cratere di 5 km non è poi così grande e si può sbriciolare il meteorite in pezzettini sparandogli addosso dei missili.

Le polveri sollevate dal cratere comporterebbero l'abbassamento della temperatura del pianeto di qualche grado per qualche anno. Un fenomeno noto come glaciazione.....

[ion2]

Originariamente inviato da blade9722

Le polveri sollevate dal cratere comporterebbero l'abbassamento della temperatura del pianeto di qualche grado per qualche anno. Un fenomeno noto come glaciazione.....

Speriamo si avveri, odio il caldo.

[^TiGeRShArK^]

Originariamente inviato da 85francy85

bassina? direi che è fin troppo alta

Io sinceramente temo MOLTO di + gli asteroidi non catalogati di questi.

[cdimauro]

Originariamente inviato da cometa18

A quel punto avrei più di 70 anni...Direi che la mia scomparsa non sarebbe una grossa perdita...

Si vede che non hai figli a cui pensare...

[Erian Algard]

Originariamente inviato da cometa18

A quel punto avrei più di 70 anni...Direi che la mia scomparsa non sarebbe una grossa perdita...

Senza contare che si creperebbe in grande stile. Un finale col botto insomma!

[Doraneko]

Originariamente inviato da blade9722

Le polveri sollevate dal cratere comporterebbero l'abbassamento della temperatura del pianeto di qualche grado per qualche anno. Un fenomeno noto come glaciazione.....

Statisticamente son piu' alte le probabilita' che cada in mare...
Comunque un meteorite di 300 metri, per quanto grosso, non fa danni estesissimi.

[Fil9998]

ancora 35 ??

ma non s'era detto 2012 ??


che due @@

[Fil9998]

Originariamente inviato da lowenz

Non date nuove idee a Giacobbo

E poi si sa, Hawass è immortale, ha pure visto nascere Cheope.

lui E' Cheope !!!

non vedi la somiglianza??