Russia prepares for 'wars of the future'

[dantes76]

Russia prepares for 'wars of the future'

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov (Christopher FindlayISN)
Christopher Findlay, ISN

The Russian military embarks on an ambitious procurement plan to beef up conventional forces on the continent and maintain a nuclear force capable of overwhelming the US National Missile Defense.

By Simon Saradzhyan in Moscow for ISN Security Watch (12/02/07)



Putin

The Russian military will spend a total of some 5 trillion rubles (US$189 billion) between 2007-2015 to replace 45 percent of its current arsenal with new weaponry systems ranging from submarine-launched ballistic missiles to new aircraft carriers for deep-water missions, in what reflects the country's resurgence as a global player.

According to an official statement, Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov told the federal parliament on 8 February that the new arms and rigorous training should prepare Russia's war machine for the future.

"There are cardinal changes in what is going on in the world and the armed forces need to be prepared for […] wars of the future," according to the minister, who also holds the rank of deputy prime minister and is one of the possible contesters in the 2008 presidential race.

In line with the Defense Ministry's 2007-2015 armament program, the Russian military will spend a total of 300 billion rubles on procurement this year alone, according to Ivanov. Russia's defense budget has been growing steadily thanks to economic growth fuelled by high oil prices and a consumer boom. As a result of the surge in federal budget revenues, the Defense Ministry quadrupled its budget from 214 billion rubles in 2001 to 821 billion this year.

Experts say the Defense Ministry's shopping spree reflects the Kremlin's desire to transform the continuing economic resurgence into geopolitical dividends by beefing up conventional forces while maintaining the strategic nuclear forces' so-called assured destruction capability of in order to flex muscles in the adjacent neighborhoods in the short-to-medium term and across the globe in the longer term.

"The procurement plan demonstrates that Russia at least wants to acquire capability to project military-political influence at least on the regional level [..]," Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies (CAST) and member of the Defense Ministry's Public Council, told ISN Security Watch in a Saturday phone interview.

Ivan Safranchuk, director of the Moscow office of the Washington, DC-based World Security Institute, concurred. "This is a sign that Russia wants to expand projection of its influence in the world, " Safranchuk told ISN Security Watch in a Wednesday phone interview.

The experts specifically pointed out that talk of procuring new aircraft carriers was one sign that Russia was seeking to expand its zone of influence. The decision to procure more could be made in 2009, the statement quoted Ivanov as saying. The Russian navy currently has one Soviet-era aircraft carrier and would have to build new ones from scratch since the sole maker of this ship in Soviet times is located in now-independent Ukraine.

As part of the shopping spree, the military will procure a total of 31 ships for the navy in 2007-2015, according to Ivanov. The ministry will also procure new arms for 40 tanks, 97 infantry and 50 airborne battalions in line with the 2007-2017 programs, he said.

As part of the reforms, the military will also stop procuring arms directly and rely on the Federal Agency for Arms Deliveries. Ivanov said this agency would become fully operational in 2008 to procure arms, equipment and other items for all of the so-called power agencies.

In his report, the minister also affirmed the Russian military's right for a preventive conventional strike and ruled out any new personnel cuts in the 1.1-million strong force, but assured that the share of professional soldiers would continue to grow among the rank-and-file.

The minister also reported that Russia may adopt a new military doctrine several years from now, once a new national security document was crafted and reaffirmed plans to replace the existing military district with regional commands.

The new doctrine is needed to formulate a response to expansion of the US presence in Russia's backyard, General Yury Baluyevsky, chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces said in remarks posted on the Defense Ministry's web site on 9 February

"The US military leadership's course aimed at maintaining its global leadership and expanding its economic, political and military presence in Russia's traditional zones of influence" has become a top threat for Russia's national security, Baluyevsky said.

Among other things, the armament program provides for construction of new "cheaper and more efficient" early radar warning stations on Russian territory, according to Ivanov. He said one such station, already built near St Petersburg, would allow the military to detect incoming missiles on territory spanning from Western Europe to the North Pole.

The stations are designed to fill in holes left in the Russian military's early warning capabilities by the disintegration of the Soviet Union as well as to decrease its dependence on these capabilities from former Soviet republics, according to Ivanov.

"We have plans to continue construction of these stations so that we won't depend on anyone, including our allies," Ivanov said in a reference to Belarus. Belarus has been Russia's closest ally and the two countries even operate a joint air defense system, but relations have been strained by a dispute over prices of Russian energy exports to Belarus.

The Russian strategic triad currently relies on data collected by early warning radars in Baranovichi in Belarus and Mukachevo and Sevastopol in Ukraine, as well as in Gabala, Azerbaijan. The Russian military has lost one such station in Skrunde, Latvia.

Ivanov did not say how many early warning satellites the military plans to procure in line with the program, but he did say that this year alone would see the armed forces acquire four satellites and four launch vehicles from the national defense industry.

To further decrease the dependency on facilities outside Russia, the Russian military will continue to spend 1 billion rubles a year to build a new base for the Black Sea fleet, which currently is based in Ukraine's Crimea in accordance with an agreement that expires in 2017.

The Russian military will also be less dependent on launches of heavy satellites to geostationary orbits from the Baikonur Cosmodrome, which Russia is leasing from Kazakhstan, once launch pads for Soyuz-2 and Angara rockets are built at the Plesetsk springboard in the Arkhangelsk region, according to the arms program.

The program also provides for procurement of at least 50 mobile versions of Topol-Ms as well as dozens of silo-based versions of this intercontinental ballistic missile. The mobile-driven ICBMs are harder to detect, but the Russian military is not so concerned with beefing up the mobile component of the Strategic Missile Forces that it would revive construction of train-driven ICBM systems, which were designed and produced in Ukraine in Soviet times, according to the minister. This year alone will see 17 ICBMs procured, the minister said. In comparison, the military had purchased around 10 ICBMs or fewer per year in recent times.

The next several years also will see the strategic nuclear triad continue operating 50 long-range Tu-160 and Tu-95 bombers and acquire new early radar warning stations on Russian territory, according to Ivanov.

In addition to new Topol-M's ICBMs, the Russian military also is set to procure Bulava submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs). However, this procurement was delayed after a series of launch test failures in what also puts off commissioning of a new generation of atomic submarines.

The increase in the annual rate of procurement of nuclear missiles is not sufficient to replace the ICBMs that the military needs to decommission in the next five years, but would "would still allow to maintain its strategic military capability at an acceptable level," according to Safranchuk.

The Russian military needs to decommission almost all Soviet-built ICBMs in 2012-2015 due to expiration of their service lives in what would leave the strategic triad with only several hundred warheads on operational delivery systems in all three components of the triad, according to Safranchuk's estimates.

Pukhov of the CAST center agreed: "There is no talk about any kind of pseudo symmetry between the US and Russia in this, but the nuclear forces would still suffice to overcome the missile defense."

However, according to the influential Nezavisimoye Voyennoye Obozreniye (Independent Military Review) weekly, the rate of commissioning of new arms "doesn't correspond with the real threats."

The weekly's 9 February issue agreed that Ivanov's estimate that some 45 percent of the existing arms would have been replaced by 2016, but argued that many of the remaining older systems could break down in what "may possibly lead to lack of armaments."

Russia's new military program comes as the US moves forward with plans to site missile defense systems in Poland and the Czech Republic - intentions that have put Russia on edge and which many believe prompted Moscow's very detailed release of its new defense program.

While Washington claims the planned Polish and Czech installations are intended to defend against missiles fired by Iran or North Korea, Moscow claims that the real intention has more to do with Russia's nuclear arsenal.

Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov once again attacked the US missile defense shield on sidelines on a security conference in Munich on 11 February as well as called abrogation of the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty between the US and the Soviet Union, which eliminated medium-range missiles. He described the treaty as "a relic of the Cold War."


Simon Saradzhyan is a veteran security and defense writer based in Moscow. He is a co-founder of the Eurasian Security Studies Center in Moscow.

Related articles from the ISN Publishing House:

Moscow Defense Brief 1/2006

http://www.isn.ethz.ch/news/sw/details.cfm?id=17240

[y4k]

sanno qualcosa che noi non sappiamo?

[Teox82]

Cioè scusate,loro si stra-armano e noi non possiamo difenderci?

[dantes76]

Originariamente inviato da Teox82

Cioè scusate,loro si stra-armano e noi non possiamo difenderci?

no e la cina che si sta armando..ripeti con me: putin e' un amico, ci taglia il gas, ma e' un amico, putin e un mandante di omicidi, ma e' un amico, putin ricatta la polonia, ma e' un amico..

[y4k]

Originariamente inviato da Teox82

Cioè scusate,loro si stra-armano e noi non possiamo difenderci?

beh noi avremo la cavour

[FastFreddy]

Originariamente inviato da dantes76

no e la cina che si sta armando..ripeti con me: putin e' un amico, ci taglia il gas, ma e' un amico, putin e un mandante di omicidi, ma e' un amico, putin ricatta la polonia, ma e' un amico..

In pratica: Putin è meglio tenerselo buono...



(Mi sembra lo sketch di Proietti.... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bhA5SJPXHqs )

[Pot]

Putin ha paura della cina... e sinceramente un po' di paura ce l'ho anche io... quando el risorse scarseggeranno.. chissà dovre andranno a prenderle i cinesi..
guarderanno verso l'alto e diranno.... toh ve che bella roba....

[JackTheReaper]

Originariamente inviato da dantes76

no e la cina che si sta armando..ripeti con me: putin e' un amico, ci taglia il gas, ma e' un amico, putin e un mandante di omicidi, ma e' un amico, putin ricatta la polonia, ma e' un amico..

hanno capito che far lavorare le industrie della difesa fa girare l'economia

ps
sento molto più vicina e amica la russia che la cina

[Tolomeo]

Originariamente inviato da Pot

Putin ha paura della cina... e sinceramente un po' di paura ce l'ho anche io... quando el risorse scarseggeranno.. chissà dovre andranno a prenderle i cinesi..
guarderanno verso l'alto e diranno.... toh ve che bella roba....

per la cina attaccare la russia sarebbe solo un buon modo per suicidarsi

[kaioh]

Originariamente inviato da Pot

Putin ha paura della cina... e sinceramente un po' di paura ce l'ho anche io... quando el risorse scarseggeranno.. chissà dovre andranno a prenderle i cinesi..
guarderanno verso l'alto e diranno.... toh ve che bella roba....

e l'india dove la lasci ?

[momo-racing]

in russia sono 142 milioni. vogliono spendere 189 miliardi di dollari per il riarmo. Ma secondo voi, visto che a questo punto i soldi ce li hanno, se avessero dato 1300 dollari a ciascun russo ( questa è l'entità dell'investimento procapite ) da spendere come vuole non sarebbero stati tutti più contenti?

.....pensare che sarebbe così semplice stare al mondo.......

[Pot]

Originariamente inviato da Tolomeo

per la cina attaccare la russia sarebbe solo un buon modo per suicidarsi

peccato che la stiano già colonizzando la siberia...
sono pazienti gli orientali molto pazienti...
poi militarmente adesso la vedo male la russia... ma qua c'è sempre qualche amante dell'ex armata rossa....

[Zebra75]

ma è da anni che si sta riarmando, dov'è la novità ?

[giannola]

non vedo dove sia il problema.
E' la solita vecchia strategia del deterrente, come le migliaia di testate atomiche che rendevano la russia capace insieme agli usa di radere al suolo il mondo più volte.

La russia in guerra fredda aveva tecnologie che quando furono fatte visionare agli scienziati occidentali, misero in evidenza una certa superiorità tecnologica.

Ma soprattutto ben venga, io non mi fido di una nazione che, sia pur democratica quanto si vuole, sia l'unica ad aver il potere di fare quello che vuole del mondo attraverso le armi.

[zuper]

lo dicevo già che c'era da stare bene attenti
http://www.hwupgrade.it/forum/showthread.php?t=1401328

[jpjcssource]

Originariamente inviato da momo-racing

in russia sono 142 milioni. vogliono spendere 189 miliardi di dollari per il riarmo. Ma secondo voi, visto che a questo punto i soldi ce li hanno, se avessero dato 1300 dollari a ciascun russo ( questa è l'entità dell'investimento procapite ) da spendere come vuole non sarebbero stati tutti più contenti?

.....pensare che sarebbe così semplice stare al mondo.......

Pensa che secondo molti esperti il budget militare russo dichiarato in verità è solo la metà di quello effettivo....... e non dobbiamo neanche dimenticare che nel 2006 Mosca è tornata ad essere il primo produttore mondiale di armamenti ed ha venduto in giro per il mondo qualche cosa come 30 miliardi di dollari di merce

[JackTheReaper]

Originariamente inviato da Pot

peccato che la stiano già colonizzando la siberia...
sono pazienti gli orientali molto pazienti...
poi militarmente adesso la vedo male la russia... ma qua c'è sempre qualche amante dell'ex armata rossa....

militarmente la russia è meglio della cina. a livello tecnologico tra 5-6 anni sarà molto piuù potente dell'armata rossa di un tempo.

lo sai che le mirabolanti armi cinesi sono versioni export delle armi russe?

[JackTheReaper]

Originariamente inviato da jpjcssource

Pensa che secondo molti esperti il budget militare russo dichiarato in verità è solo la metà di quello effettivo....... e non dobbiamo neanche dimenticare che nel 2006 Mosca è tornata ad essere il primo produttore mondiale di armamenti ed ha venduto in giro per il mondo qualche cosa come 30 miliardi di dollari di merce

perchè spesso si fa confusione con funzione difesa e budget totale (investimento, stipendi, agenzie varie che dipendono dalla difesa..)

cmq si, i budget russi sono in netto rialzo e mi fa ridere che molti, seguendo il trend attuale delle cina, credono che essa sia meglio della russia

se pensiamo al fatto che la russia ha in cantiere 20 tra navi e sommergibili di nuova concezione mantre la tanto osannata cina compra cacciatorpediniere russi usati...

[jpjcssource]

Originariamente inviato da JackTheReaper

perchè spesso si fa confusione con funzione difesa e budget totale (investimento, stipendi, agenzie varie che dipendono dalla difesa..)

cmq si, i budget russi sono in netto rialzo e mi fa ridere che molti, seguendo il trend attuale delle cina, credono che essa sia meglio della russia

se pensiamo al fatto che la russia ha in cantiere 20 tra navi e sommergibili di nuova concezione mantre la tanto osannata cina compra cacciatorpediniere russi usati...

......e due portaerei che fanno fatica a prendere il mare dopo essere state a marcire a Murmansk per un pezzo

Inoltre il nuovo J10 fa fatica ad arrivare alle prestazioni di un f16 C pensa se lo metti a confronto di EF, JSF e Raptor

[ALIEN3]

IMHO la Cina, se potesse, importerebbe tutte le armi che verrebbero scartate da tutti gli eserciti del mondo senza contare uniformi, mezzi, armi che vengono prodotte copiate sporadicamente Il perno di forza della Cina è di avere la possibilità di usare milioni di persone se dovesse scoppiare una guerra.

La Russia secondo me ha la particolarità di avere armi e mezzi economici ma estremamente funzionanti ma la mancanza di fondi non fa costruire armi, mezzi e pagare il personale militare


Byezzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz